Drones have been a major feature of the fighting in Ukraine since well before the 2022 invasion – but they have been set apart from other major systems by just how quickly the technology and tactics behind them have evolved.
In this episode, I look at why drones in Ukraine are becoming more dangerous, at the same time as they are becoming much, much more common.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
I also note that while I describe 10km as a long range for an FPV strike – this is from the point of view of the war as a whole. And FPV strikes significantly beyond the 10km mark have been reported and claimed.
Readings and Sources (temporarily shortened list as I am in transit):
Institute for Science and International Security report on Lancet-3
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/russian-lancet-3-kamikaze-drone-filled-with-foreign-parts
Lushenko, Paul (LTC, PhD) – The Cult of the Drone: At the two-year mark, UAVs have changed the face of war in Ukraine – but not outcomes
https://theconversation.com/cult-of-the-drone-at-the-two-year-mark-uavs-have-changed-the-face-of-war-in-ukraine-but-not-outcomes-221397
Illustrative report on COTS sourcing of thermal drones
Reporting on Russian use of Repeater drones
Reporting on Ukraine producing flight controllers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/15/ukraine-makes-drone-flight-controllers-breaking-free-of-china/?sh=5edb156a319e
S J Freedberg Jr – The Revolution That Wasn’t: how AI drones have fizzled in Ukraine (so far)
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/the-revolution-that-wasnt-how-ai-drones-have-fizzled-in-ukraine-so-far/
Reporting on Lancet and its autonomy:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/03/01/russian-kamikaze-drone-now-seems-to-identify-its-own-targets/?sh=3dcc52b54b89
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/14/it-looks-like-russias-automated-killer-drones-did-not-work-as-planned/?sh=73498094785e
Reporting on FPV production:
DIY Drones for Defense: Ukrainians Gain Expertise in Assembling FPV Drones
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65389215
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has produced about 200 thousand FPV drones
https://kyivindependent.com/fedorov-ukraine-to-produce-1-million-drones-per-year/
Featured image of Lancet attack on UA MiG-29
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/19/russias-tiny-drones-are-now-flying-far-enough-to-blow-up-ukrainian-migs-at-their-bases/?sh=28c529d0f9e3
Image source for UA troops setting up antenna
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2023/nov/07/21st-century-trench-warfare-ukrainian-frontline-in-pictures
Featured article on refinery strikes
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-refineries-targeted-by-ukraines-drones-2024-03-25/
And the improvised aircraft drone strike
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russias-shahed-136-factory-attacked-by-light-plane-converted-into-a-drone
That NZ supermarket meal planning AI I mentioned:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/pak-n-save-savey-meal-bot-ai-app-malfunction-recipes
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:40 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:11 — Caveats And Content
00:01:55 — The New Drone Ecosystem
00:05:00 — The Drones Get Better
00:06:26 — Sensors And Night Ops
00:10:43 — Range And The Value Of Reach
00:19:20 — Targeting & AI
00:27:38 — Lethality
00:39:44 — Countermeasures
00:48:43 — Production
00:57:47 — Implications And Projections
01:10:58 — Channel Update